Mediagrif Interactive Technologies (MDF-TSX, $10.75) est une petite compagnie québécoise dont on entend peu souvent parler, mais dont la valeur boursière me semble inférieure à sa valeur réelle. L'entreprise offre des services informatiques, principalement reliés au domaine du commerce électronique. D'année en année, elle parvient à augmenter son chiffre d'affaires et à faire des profits avec des marges nettes dans les environs du 20%. Au cours des douze derniers mois, cette marge a baissé à 14,7%, ce qui a fait descendre le cours du titre de façon importante, de $18.75 à sa valeur actuelle de $10.75, chute qui m'apparaît nettement exagérée et qui crée une occasion d'achat selon ma modeste opinion.
Mediagrif Interactive Technologies se transige actuellement à 1.2 de sa valeur aux livres, ce qui est peu dans le domaine des TIC. Sa dette à long terme à 0.3 de l'équité des actionnaires est très raisonnable et ne cause pas de craintes. En prime, la compagnie paie actuellement un dividende qui équivaut à 3,7%. La compagnie profite également du faible cours de l'action pour en racheter et les annuler. Par ailleurs, Mediagrif Interactive a fait l'acquisition d'Orckestra en 2017, ce qui devrait renforcer son offre de solutions pour le commerce électronique.
Si les investisseurs ne reconnaissent pas bientôt la valeur réelle de cette entreprise, j'ai la nette impression qu'elle pourrait faire l'objet d'une acquisition par une plus grande entreprise publique ou privée. Qu'elle demeure une entreprise indépendante ou qu'elle soit éventuellement rachetée, je crois qu'à moyen terme sa valeur boursière augmentera inévitablement.
Site de Mediagrif Interactive Technologies
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Analyse de la Banque Nationale sur ce titre:
Organic Growth Remains Challenged. FQ2 (Sept) revenue was up 3% y/y, driven by a $1.2 mln contribution from recently acquired Orckestra, which was acquired in FQ1 (June). In addition,InterTrade and BidNet contributed a combined $0.3 mln of revenue y/y due to higher transactions ontheir Value-Added Networks, revenue growth from existing customers, and cross-selling. Excluding the Orckestra contribution, we estimate revenue would have down 3% y/y organically. The drivers of this decline? Lower advertising revenue at Jobboom (including pricing discounts) and LesPAC (conversion to free ad postings for several categories), as well as softness at MERX, The Broker Forum, and Réseau Contact. With respect to LesPAC – the conversion to free ad postings drove increased activity, with the number of online postings growing 167% y/y. However, it’s too early to assess how those
postings will translate into the financials at this point. As for MERX, we believe the declines are due to lower demand for printed documents. In our view, declines at the Broker Forum and Réseau Contact were organic (fewer members using both platforms). All that has us taking pause.
Orckestra Acquisition Integration Progressing. Recall, Mediagrif closed its acquisition of Orckestra in June 2017. As such, this was the first quarter of full contribution. In FQ2, Orckestra contributed $1.2 mln to revenue but a loss of -$0.5 mln to EBITDA, and -$0.7 mln to net income (-$0.05 to EPS). Since the acquisition, Mediagrif has hired 12 employees at Orckestra, and we’d expect this trend to continue, placing slight pressure on margins for the next couple quarters. That said, Management continues to point to positive contribution from this acquisition within the next fiscal year. Overall, Orckestra is positive in that it potentially signals an appetite for acquisitions – something that’s been dormant for some time. If that weren’t enough, we believe Orckestra provides a platform for organic growth given its broad expertise in e-Commerce / omni-channel services. The challenge – it’s also unclear on the timeline for those synergies to scale and based on our estimate, we think investors can come back to the stock at a later time to capture those potential synergies.
There’s Capacity For Acquisitions – Pace Just Needs To Pick Up. MDF ended FQ2 with $11.5 mln of cash and $45 mln of available room on their credit facility of $80 mln. With respect to Mediagrif’s facility, the Company has the ability to increase their maximum draw by $40 mln. All in, we estimate the Company has the ability to deploy ~$100 mln on acquisitions given their current Net Debt/EBITDA of <1.0x. That said, we believe Mediagrif will continue to target smaller tuck-ins in the short term given the integration of Orckestra.
Back to Sector Perform
Bottom line, we can’t ignore the continuing lack of organic growth that’s compounded by a renewed “treadmill effect”, coupled with what we believe a lower probability of a private equity bid for the name. What would have us becoming more constructive is an accelerated pace of acquisition. We are moving back to a Sector Perform (from Outperform) and lowering our target to $14 (from $20) based on our revised DCF-based target which implies EV/EBITDA of 9.4x and P/E of 20.1x (was 11.4x, and 21.6x respectively) on our revised F2018 estimates.
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