mercredi 12 novembre 2008
Une vision optimiste: nous sommes peut-être au début d'un bull market...
J'exprimais hier mon peu d'optimisme face aux marchés d'ici au printemps prochain. Ce matin, sur le site de Cantos.com, l'analyste Chris Watling, direteur du Longview Economics, un consultant britanique en matière d'allocation des actifs, exprimait un point de vue plus optimiste: nous serions peut-être au début d'un nouveau "bull market". Il s'appuit sur les indicateurs suivants:
1. Indicateurs techniques positifs
2. Réaction adéquate des gouvernements à la crise financière (baisse des taux directeurs et recapitalisation des banques)
3. Les actions sont offertes actuellement avec un rabais (discounting) important en comparaison de leur valeur
Désolé, je n'ai pas le temps de traduire ce texte, voici la version anglaise. La vidéo est également disponible sur le site de Cantos.com, vous n'avez qu'à vous abonner, c'est gratuit.
Investir maintenant ou attendre au printemps, that is the question...
Despite October’s turbulence, we remain very much overweight equities versus bonds and cash. There’s a very strong case for a year-end rally all the way through to Christmas and perhaps beyond, based primarily on our medium-term indicators. Across the board, all groups have indicators that are signalling buy or strong buy. Technical indicators are showing the market has never been more oversold in the last two or three decades. Sentiment indicators are at 20-year lows. Volatility indicators as indicative of fear in the markets are at record high levels. Indeed, realised volatility is the highest it’s been since 1929. Over and above that, one can look at other types of indicators. Corporate bond spreads, for example, at their widest since the early ’20s. Adding all these together suggests now is not a time to lose heart. Now is a time to expect equities to rally through to the year-end, and as I say, perhaps beyond.
The key question for investors is, will that be a bear market rally or will that be the beginning of a new bull market? In that respect, there are three encouraging signs to suggest there is a case that it may be the beginning of a new bull market.Firstly, if we look at valuation, our proprietary valuation indicator is generating its first buy signal since October 1990. Indeed, this indicator has only given three buy signals over the last 30 years - October ’90, as I’ve said, ’82 to ’83, the beginning of that secular bull market, and again in ’85. Secondly, most importantly, the policy response to this crisis has been very good in the last month. Not only have we had global coordinated policy rate cuts, we’ve also had the perfect response to an insolvent global Western financial system, that is we’ve had recapitalisation of the banking system by Western governments and indeed beyond. And the third key note of encouragement is the degree of discounting that’s already taken place in equity markets.
Equity markets in the West are already down between 40 and 50 per cent from their highs in October last year. That makes them mega bear markets - rarely surpassed. Indeed, one has to look to the Great Depression in the States in the 1930s to a bigger bear market of significance.Those three factors, despite how sentiment may feel at the moment, are indeed very encouraging. And indeed, over the course of this rally over the next few months, one can reassess the effectiveness of the policy response in the last month to this financial crisis. And if we signs of life in the financial sector, we can increase our confidence as to the case that this may well be the end of this bear market.